Like an awful lot of people I know, I’ve woken up this morning to a nightmare scenario. I don’t mean the simple fact of being outside the EU, although that is a terrible blow in itself. I mean the longer term implications.

I know this might sound like nothing more than hyperbole, that some people might think it’s an infantile over-reaction to things not going ‘my way’. I can see why it may look like that, so I want to explain why I feel it’s such a disaster.

Our political process is far more broken than we thought

Mainstream politics in this country is completely out of whack with the feelings and attitudes of the electorate. It’s no secret that we’ve got a political class that is disproportionately made up of people born in a bubble that they never leave. Other than for those inside the bubble, this is common knowledge.

The electorate cannot properly communicate their feelings to the political establishment. Increasing concern surrounding a specific issue is consistently under-estimated. Frustration over something spills over into people getting pissed off and ranting incoherently, which leads to them being dismissed as fringe lunatics.

Equally, the establishment either can’t or don’t communicate information back to the electorate. Too often it is most politically expedient to ride a wave of vox pop sentiment, exploiting it to remain in power. Then while all the parliamentary rhetoric is still settling, they move on to the next vote-winning cause without actually doing anything.

This boils down to political laziness, the path of least resistance. Rather than do things the hard way and explain the case in the clearest, least partisan terms possible, MPs will just nod along, say the right words and then not actually act upon them. Opportunities for small, incremental fixes are missed and we end up with discontent building up until there’s a huge, sudden over-adjustment. It was what happened with the trade unions and nationalised services, and now it’s what has happened with migration and legislative authority.

And in hindsight, none of this should be surprising. It has become apparent that the tools we have for bridging this disconnect aren’t fit for purpose. Opinion polls don’t report accurately. Political campaigns run riot with the truth, in the absence of any regulatory obligation to actually tell it. Normal, grounded terminology is banned from the public debate, so nobody ever admits they got it wrong and this just feeds into the frustrations of people who’re already feeling ignored and marginalised. For anyone watching the BBC’s referendum coverage last night, I point you towards Angela Eagle’s downright demented denial of reality and Iain Duncan Smith’s “I didn’t say that, absolutely not, that wasn’t what I said, wasn’t it very funny and clever of me to say that” routine.

We aren’t playing by the same rules. If we were working from things at least resembling facts, we’d have a common ground for the discussion. Instead, we’re talking about completely different realities, using different meanings. We’re fed lies, expected to believe them and then treated with surprised contempt when we do just that. Our complaints that our concerns aren’t being addressed are met with two stages of equally asinine response; first we are told they are in fact being addressed when we can see that quite obviously isn’t the case, then that we aren’t really concerned about those things anyway.

Geopolitical Effects

This is going to cost us. A lot. Austerity is and has always been New Speak for ‘creeping privatisation’. Instead of being accountable for their own ideological impositions, the government in general and leave campaign in particular have blamed it on the EU. The great irony of this is we’re now facing a major economic downturn that will almost certainly force more cuts and further depress the job market. There may well be a many people who voted along these lines who will have a lot of egg on their face in the near future. That’s probably a good thing because, as a consequence of all this, those same people are unlikely to be able to afford luxuries such as food.

Another knock-on of this will be the increased pressure from other European Union member states to hold their own referenda. As a worst-case scenario, this could lead to an eventual breakup of the EU, which at a time when Russia is flexing increasingly nationalistic, expansionist muscles could be catastrophic. Assuming that any and all steps will be taken to avoid that risk, we’re not going to walk away from this with a sweet deal and a fond farewell. We’re going to be made an example of, to scare others thinking of following our lead into staying put.

I’ve heard quite a few people say that we shouldn’t worry about this, because we can negotiate ourselves a positive exit deal. This is a lie. The reason we can’t is because, according to the rules surrounding Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, we won’t be involved in the negotiations. All parties other than the exiting party decide the deal. Those same parties who will want to make sure no-one jumps on our bandwagon. And their friends, which in political terms means ‘biggest trade partners’, such as the US and China, are likely to play along.

Probably of the greatest concern – again, assuming the worst case scenario of World War 3 is avoided – is what will happen to that other union, the United Kingdom. Scotland have already announced their intention to hold a second independence vote, which in this new context is likely to lead to them leaving the UK. Northern Ireland is also going to become extremely problematic, as it will now need border controls with the rest of Ireland. A resurgence of violence in the region is probably also on the cards. Amongst the many problems these two aspects will bring, one is a further diminishing of the UK’s value as a trading partner and therefore political clout on the world stage.

The long-term domestic picture

Here’s where things look really grim. If we look at the above from a holistic point of view, we find some particularly disturbing outcomes. I don’t have the time, insight or energy to identify them all, let alone outline them, so I’ll just cover the two I find most worrying.

Things are going to get a lot worse in terms of the economy. Not only does this have a direct impact on quality of life, but it also further fans the flames which mobilised much of the leave vote in the first place. Only now we’ve got no ‘outsider’ to blame. In such situations, what usually happens is people start blaming each other. Far from learning the lessons so graphically and tragically highlighted by the death of Jo Cox, we can expect to see the polemic become more heated, more internalised in its scope but more externalised in its expression.

That’s bad enough at the best of times and, looking back, these last few years may be viewed as the best of times. Going forward though, there is one danger above all others that I think is very real. If Scotland votes to leave, it takes many Labour – and now SNP, but the practical impact will be the same – heartlands with it. This hands a lasting and substantial electoral mandate to the Tories. It shifts the political centre a long way to the right. At the same time, the Tories themselves are taking a step to the right, with Cameron’s resignation almost certainly paving the way for someone like Boris Johnson leading the party.

Our political landscape may well have just changed irrecoverably. If Scotland does indeed vote for independence, it’s plausible that we will have a generation of Conservative rule, just as the party falls into the hands of newly-invigorated neo-Thatcherites. All coming to be with more of an appetite for US-style laissez-faire corporatism and less regulations to hold them back.

So my reasons for such despondency at the referendum result are twofold: sadness at what has been lost and despair at what is to come. I’m not being petulant at ‘losing’, nor do I dismiss the concerns or intelligence of all those who voted out. I’m simply looking at the world and asking myself “where does this path lead?”. I really, truly can’t see it being anywhere good.