Today has been probably the most entertainingly bizarre day of British politics in living memory. As a terrible junkie for politics in general, I’ve been so enthralled that I’ve managed to put aside the horror of what caused it all. I woke up expecting to find Jeremy Corbyn a naked, limbless torso, deserted by even his appendages and clothing. Something to look forward to at any time, but an unambitious non-event compared to what actually unfolded as the day went on.

Taking a detached view of it all, it’s been surreal and entertaining in equal measure. I’ve laughed, I’ve groaned, I’ve been absolutely fascinated. So what has actually happened and can we draw any conclusions – or at least predictions – from it? Of course we can! They might be wrong, but they’re (mostly) worth thinking about.

First of all, it was becoming increasingly clear that the Conservatives had decided to follow Labour off a cliff. Whether this was out of some warped sense of parliamentary solidarity or just an acute case of folie á deux is hard to say. The case for a major upheaval to the existing party status quo that I hinted at in my previous update is looking stronger.

Not only have Labour gone into meltdown, but now the Tories are stowing their monocles and engaging in righteous fisticuffs as well. Quietly, lost in all the noise, a major financial supporter of the leave campaign is looking to ditch UKIP and form a new, Farage-less alternative. Nobody seems to know what the Lib Dems are doing, which suggests they’re currently bucking the trend by continuing with business as usual.

The headline act has been Tory party leadership contenders. It’s an update in its own right, so you can read it here. But what about the big picture and what all this means?

As mentioned, amidst all the smoke and gore, UKIP looks like it might be in trouble. Arron Banks, who has pumped a fair few pennies into the leave campaign, is talking about replacing them. I suspect this actually translates to “wooing a few Tories from the far right and burying Farage in compost”. By the standard of the times, that’s almost good news. It certainly points to a re-drawing of party lines and possibly the political landscape in general.

With the SNP rendering the rest of the UK helpless against Tory-dominated politics, such a schism does make sense. There’s room for another party, with a left/centre-right/very-right arrangement emerging. Exactly where the new borders will be drawn is hard to tell, but I think something like this is on the cards.

Then there’s the future of Boris Johnson, who is now free to pick where he lends his weight. I don’t think it impossible that his side-stepping of execution today might be a nod towards Theresa May. There are people worse-placed to add perceived unity to a Remain-led Brexit government, certainly. It would also give him a shot at a proper cabinet position, which further bolsters his inevitable future bid at party leadership however many years down the line.

Moreover, with May’s statement that “Brexit means Brexit”, Johnson could have a degree of plausible deniability in heading up negotiations that eventually leave us still part of Europe. It would look less like an establishment stitch-up, ignoring the democratic wishes of the electorate, if such a ‘failure’ were led by a man who fought hard to leave. He’s also the flip-floppiest person in parliament, so scruples wouldn’t get in the way of such a stunt.

There’s been one other particularly significant bit of news that might tie in with the above. This is Standard & Poor’s downgrade to the EU’s credit rating forecast. While Britain is taking – and will continue to take – the brunt of the pain from all this, it shows there’s still plenty to go around elsewhere. The reason for the downgrade was ‘continued economic uncertainty’. If the UK government were to drag its feet in implementing Article 50, this uncertainty will go on and on. The longer it lasts, the worse it will get. We may then find ourselves playing chicken with the EU: give us what we want or we’ll trash your credit rating even more.

That, combined with the May/Johnson scenario outlined above, could feasibly – but not yet probably – give us the bartering chip we need. Ever increasing pressure on an already bruised EU might put an unexpected concession on the table. We have to say we’re very, very sorry and give up part – or all – of our rebate. In exchange, we get to stay in the EU and are given some concession on freedom of movement. This would most likely be along the lines of limiting it only to those who have already found work before they arrive and/or restricting the right to bring family members with them.

It is, admittedly, a long shot at this stage. However, based on the fact that the UK Conservative Party is home to political chicanery par excellence, I don’t think it entirely impossible. It is, if nothing else, a reason to hope the outcome won’t be as dreadful as seemed certain just a few days ago.