By the end of today, we will have a new Prime Minister and it will be Theresa May. It says everything about the pace and direction of modern politics that this isn’t the worst news we could be faced with. At the rate the – already hilariously low – bar is being lowered, by next week we’d have seen Donald Trump, an undead Pol Pot and two-thirds of a badger carcass joining the race.

I have never been a fan of May, who strikes me as an authoritarian introvert with a dangerous moralistic streak. However, all sewers must have a shiniest poo and in this leadership race she is it. As mentioned in my previous comments – not dreadfully inaccurate, although Crabb and Leadsom swapped places– she was up against:

• Liam Fox, who couldn’t even win his own vote.
• Evil Pob.
• Stephen Crabb. A man who thinks you can cure gayness but not being a creepy hypocrite.
• Andrea Leadsom, who cut short her promising career writing fantasy fiction in order to dive on the grenade that was her own jaw-dropping inexperience.

The first three weren’t really a worry, but the news of Leadsom dropping out of the race was a welcome relief for a number of reasons. Firstly, the idea of a grassroots uprising amongst the membership wasn’t completely fanciful, so it was plausible she could have won. Secondly, that happening would have been absolutely awful. Not least because she’s a buttoned-down, moral-majority bandwagon type, a British Sarah Palin-lite.

But now, 24 hours on, the relief is gone. We need to accept that our new PM has previously called for us to ditch the European Convention of Human Rights & Fundamental Freedoms so she can fully realise her dreams. These particular dreams are unfortunately of a police state with no respect for privacy. I realise she did something sensible about Stop & Search, but not because it was totalitarian. Just because it was racist. We all (hopefully!) agree that racism is bad. But if it’s someone’s only objection to Stasi-esque police tactics then I’m probably not going to invite them to babysit. Certainly not to run my country.

So it’s something of a disappointing victory, in the sense that while it could have been worse it could still have been much less worse. Unworser. More good. But what shall this new era bring? At the moment we can only guess at details, but we can be fairly confident of a few things.

First and foremost is that the new government has no intention of holding an early election. There are a couple of things to mention on this. One is that Theresa May is on record for criticising Gordon Brown for not calling a General Election when he inherited the gently steaming corpse of the Labour Party. There’s more than a hint of hypocrisy in her not doing the same even as she dances on the Grave of Dave.

Another is that it’s almost certainly not true. Labour are tearing themselves apart, the Lib Dems are still cleaning bits of Nick Clegg off the walls of party HQ, and UKIP have lost their prize dickfigurehead and are yet to settle on a replacement. The Brexit vote is still mobilised and likely to vote for a Tory government that’s apparently determined to force the issue through. In many ways, now would be a great time to call for a general election. The only reason it would make sense to claim to not call one is if you’re planning on doing so and don’t want anyone else to try and sort their act out before you do. Either that or we’re about to see a political move known as The Callaghan, in which case invest heavily in placards in the run up to 2020.

Related to that is the mantra ‘Brexit means Brexit’. I’m not entirely sure I buy into the sincerity of that, especially as Phil Hammond is already setting the scene for an extended negotiation and exit process. 7 years has passed? Best have another referendum! However, it does also tell us two other things about how May wants the start of her premiership to be perceived. First, as a continuation rather than a revolution, following through (in both senses) on the foundations and commitments of Cameron’s run as PM. Second, as someone who can bring the UKIP swing-vote back into the fold to vote for the Conservatives in the next General Election in 2020. Or February next year. Potato/potato.

We’re also hours away from finding out who will be what in the new cabinet. Hammond, Greening, Rudd, and Grayling (urrgh…) are all tipped to do well. Bloody Stupid Johnson might get a cabinet role somewhere relatively harmless. George Osborne my find himself somewhere like the Foreign or Home Office, if he’s booted from the Exchequer as seems likely. Crabb may have netted himself a minor cabinet role, as suggested previously and now I’ve said it twice, I really need to be right about it, even as I hope I’m not. Priti Patel is unfortunately in with a chance of a more important role. Fox is likely to be ignored completely, despite his Brexit campaign credentials, and Gove may or may not be stripped of Justice Secretaryship. And/or ground into paste and used to fertilise the garden at No. 10 as an object lesson in how not to run a political career.

One thing I will be very interested in seeing is who will be heading up Brexit negotiations. Common sense would dictate that will be a post all in itself (BSJ, maybe?) as otherwise the Foreign Office is going to get very little else done for the best part of the next decade.

Other than that, all we’ve got is a pocketful of mumbles, such are promises. More social justice, less economic disparity, more accountability, a fairer Britain, a Winston Churchill for every home etc. etc. For those of us with a more cynical bent, that translates to empty gestures to appease the credulous even as there are more and more punitive cuts made to vital public services.

Addendum

The above was written yesterday, 13/07/2016. However, due to important business involving standing in a field drinking beer while admiring laughably expensive motorbikes, I didn’t get around to uploading it. In the time since, there have been a few updates.

• There apparently will be a Department of Brexit, although it’ll likely be called something like the Department of Making Our Bed And Sleeping In It.
• Liam Fox still hasn’t been deported to the bottom of the sea and might even get a token frontbench job.
• I’d somehow completely forgotten that Theresa May has a personal dislike for Michael Gove. Of course, everyone does these days and that’s only right and proper, but May really hated him before it became cool. Don’t expect much mercy, but if he does keep his job us Justice Secretary then it should be seen as an indicator that the unity/continuity cards are being played in full force.

The Tory candidacy race is only into day two of around sixty and it’s already questionable as to whether anyone will survive to the end. The first big casualty was Boris Johnson, who decided this one looks a bit rough and got a taxi home to rest up for the next race. Of all the candidates who’ve got bounce-back, he’s the best equipped to reinvent himself over the next few years.

Michael ‘Pyrrhus’ Gove, on the other hand, has exploded onto the scene only to find his target – and therefore his impact – nowhere to be seen. Without Boris to grapple with, he has just ended up looking like a treacherous windbag. He puts me in mind of the vulnerable kid at school who decides to try and impress the popular kids by one day turning up to class with a gun. Rebellion is one thing, but there’s a line.

Likewise, Conservative politics is a vicious game where respect is earned by playing by the – admittedly rather scant – rules. For this game to operate, there needs to be at least some basic sense of stability, which includes knowing exactly who the players are. The reason Gove is now finding himself friendless and vilified is not because he hamstrung Boris on the starting block. It’s because he didn’t have the decency to let anyone else in on the plan beforehand.

This has thrown a bone out to the other three, as every race needs someone to come second. It’s now looking like Andrea Leadsom is favourite to lose least badly to Theresa May. However, with all the shenanigans going on at the moment, it’s possible she’ll drop back. Stepping aside in 3^rd out of choice can net you a top cabinet job and avoids the disgrace of being seen to lose. With Liam Fox still determined to be the least popular man in parliament, that means Stephen Crabb could appear as the surprise sacrificial lamb in the final two.

What does look certain is that Team Brexit have managed to take themselves out of contention. Gove declared war and Boris, being who he is, suddenly declared he was bored and sodded off. A cynic might say he suddenly saw his side-line in journalism as a way to rewrite history as it happens, preparing the ground for future battles. It wouldn’t be the first time.

Meanwhile, over in the Labour camp (not yet that kind, but the situation is deteriorating fast) the Benny Hill theme music is still stuck on loop. Jeremy Corbyn has received a bit of support from Scottish Labour, albeit nearly a week after the only Scottish Labour member to actually hold a seat resigned in protest. He’s also got the deputy leader of the party telling him that, seriously now, maybe he might need to give it a rest.

However, tens of thousands of new members are signing up to the Labour Party, so Corbyn may end up carrying an even greater popular mandate. Currently he needs it, because nothing short of a miracle is going to keep him in his job much longer. The biggest problem is if he runs again and wins again. There simply won’t be enough humble pie to go around the shadow cabinet. Austerity truly has hit us all.

This sudden influx of members may also be why Angela Eagle continues to hold off declaring her leadership bid. Until anyone knows what the demographics of these new members are, that makes sense; standing against Corbyn just as he gains another 60,000 open party votes would be futile. That said, this is Angela Eagle we’re talking about, so assuming her decisions are based on facts or logic isn’t going to get us anywhere.

Tom Watson is also reportedly in the running. Or will be once there’s a running to be in. Until then he’s trying to find a way to send the words “step down” back to about 1986, where it’s believed Jeremy’s attention was last seen. He’s showing more nouse than most of the rest of the party though, as he realises that no confrontation is about the only thing that will leave the party standing.

Yvette Cooper could make a showing. She’s been consistent-ish in wanting to close the wealth gap and is a big supporter of more public spending, affordable housing and being married to one of the worst people to ever enter parliament. So can we accept a leader who has Ed Balls dripping poison into her ear each night? I don’t know. As a possibly mitigating factor, she stands out as being one of the few Labour MPs who I’ve ended up thinking more highly of the more I’ve read about her.

Also of interest is Dan Jarvis. MP for Barnsley, which had a 68.3% Leave vote, he would be a credible man to try and re-engage the voters Corbyn tried and fail to connect with. In terms of political position, he seems moderately progressive, supporting economic and gender equality, as well as being quite passionate about the NHS. He’s a bit light on experience, but making a run of it and then stepping aside could win him a more interesting shadow cabinet role. Perhaps Defence, which would play will with his military background. However, all this is rather sensible for Labour and is therefore almost certainly not what will happen.

I have to admit to knowing very little about former shadow business secretary, Owen Smith. From what I can gather, this is being seen as a benefit to his potential leadership. I’ll leave the implied statement about the Labour MPs we do know a lot about just here… But apparently he’s another one with good left-wing history, so maybe all isn’t lost.

The only other potential name of any significance is John McDonnell. Until yesterday, I’d not even have considered him a possibility, but now Michael Gove has redefined “definitely not, never ever in a million years” to mean “sure, why not!” it seems feasible. My gut instinct is he’d be better off hanging around for Corbs to cop it and then stepping into the role by inheriting the popular vote. However, lunacy abounds, so he might get impatient and press the matter more aggressively if things don’t look like changing in the next couple of weeks.

All of which points towards both parties attempting to return to somewhere at least close to their pre-referendum status quo. Labour are conceding that they need to be a bit more left wing than under Blair (i.e. at all), while the Tories are conceding that they’ve ruined the country far faster than they’d intended and should probably do something about it. Like squabble.

This raises an interesting possibility and one that, depressingly, was so unlikely I’d not really considered it. If the Tories are set to bicker amongst themselves more at the same time as Labour realising that it might be a good idea to bicker amongst themselves less, we may end up with a more balanced House of Commons.

I feel completely ridiculous even suggesting it. But… maybe?