Running to Lose

The Tory candidacy race is only into day two of around sixty and it’s already questionable as to whether anyone will survive to the end. The first big casualty was Boris Johnson, who decided this one looks a bit rough and got a taxi home to rest up for the next race. Of all the candidates who’ve got bounce-back, he’s the best equipped to reinvent himself over the next few years.

Michael ‘Pyrrhus’ Gove, on the other hand, has exploded onto the scene only to find his target – and therefore his impact – nowhere to be seen. Without Boris to grapple with, he has just ended up looking like a treacherous windbag. He puts me in mind of the vulnerable kid at school who decides to try and impress the popular kids by one day turning up to class with a gun. Rebellion is one thing, but there’s a line.

Likewise, Conservative politics is a vicious game where respect is earned by playing by the – admittedly rather scant – rules. For this game to operate, there needs to be at least some basic sense of stability, which includes knowing exactly who the players are. The reason Gove is now finding himself friendless and vilified is not because he hamstrung Boris on the starting block. It’s because he didn’t have the decency to let anyone else in on the plan beforehand.

This has thrown a bone out to the other three, as every race needs someone to come second. It’s now looking like Andrea Leadsom is favourite to lose least badly to Theresa May. However, with all the shenanigans going on at the moment, it’s possible she’ll drop back. Stepping aside in 3rd out of choice can net you a top cabinet job and avoids the disgrace of being seen to lose. With Liam Fox still determined to be the least popular man in parliament, that means Stephen Crabb could appear as the surprise sacrificial lamb in the final two.

What does look certain is that Team Brexit have managed to take themselves out of contention. Gove declared war and Boris, being who he is, suddenly declared he was bored and sodded off. A cynic might say he suddenly saw his side-line in journalism as a way to rewrite history as it happens, preparing the ground for future battles. It wouldn’t be the first time.

Meanwhile, over in the Labour camp (not yet that kind, but the situation is deteriorating fast) the Benny Hill theme music is still stuck on loop. Jeremy Corbyn has received a bit of support from Scottish Labour, albeit nearly a week after the only Scottish Labour member to actually hold a seat resigned in protest. He’s also got the deputy leader of the party telling him that, seriously now, maybe he might need to give it a rest.

However, tens of thousands of new members are signing up to the Labour Party, so Corbyn may end up carrying an even greater popular mandate. Currently he needs it, because nothing short of a miracle is going to keep him in his job much longer. The biggest problem is if he runs again and wins again. There simply won’t be enough humble pie to go around the shadow cabinet. Austerity truly has hit us all.

This sudden influx of members may also be why Angela Eagle continues to hold off declaring her leadership bid. Until anyone knows what the demographics of these new members are, that makes sense; standing against Corbyn just as he gains another 60,000 open party votes would be futile. That said, this is Angela Eagle we’re talking about, so assuming her decisions are based on facts or logic isn’t going to get us anywhere.

Tom Watson is also reportedly in the running. Or will be once there’s a running to be in. Until then he’s trying to find a way to send the words “step down” back to about 1986, where it’s believed Jeremy’s attention was last seen. He’s showing more nouse than most of the rest of the party though, as he realises that no confrontation is about the only thing that will leave the party standing.

Yvette Cooper could make a showing. She’s been consistent-ish in wanting to close the wealth gap and is a big supporter of more public spending, affordable housing and being married to one of the worst people to ever enter parliament. So can we accept a leader who has Ed Balls dripping poison into her ear each night? I don’t know. As a possibly mitigating factor, she stands out as being one of the few Labour MPs who I’ve ended up thinking more highly of the more I’ve read about her.

Also of interest is Dan Jarvis. MP for Barnsley, which had a 68.3% Leave vote, he would be a credible man to try and re-engage the voters Corbyn tried and fail to connect with. In terms of political position, he seems moderately progressive, supporting economic and gender equality, as well as being quite passionate about the NHS. He’s a bit light on experience, but making a run of it and then stepping aside could win him a more interesting shadow cabinet role. Perhaps Defence, which would play will with his military background. However, all this is rather sensible for Labour and is therefore almost certainly not what will happen.

I have to admit to knowing very little about former shadow business secretary, Owen Smith. From what I can gather, this is being seen as a benefit to his potential leadership. I’ll leave the implied statement about the Labour MPs we do know a lot about just here… But apparently he’s another one with good left-wing history, so maybe all isn’t lost.

The only other potential name of any significance is John McDonnell. Until yesterday, I’d not even have considered him a possibility, but now Michael Gove has redefined “definitely not, never ever in a million years” to mean “sure, why not!” it seems feasible. My gut instinct is he’d be better off hanging around for Corbs to cop it and then stepping into the role by inheriting the popular vote. However, lunacy abounds, so he might get impatient and press the matter more aggressively if things don’t look like changing in the next couple of weeks.

All of which points towards both parties attempting to return to somewhere at least close to their pre-referendum status quo. Labour are conceding that they need to be a bit more left wing than under Blair (i.e. at all), while the Tories are conceding that they’ve ruined the country far faster than they’d intended and should probably do something about it. Like squabble.

This raises an interesting possibility and one that, depressingly, was so unlikely I’d not really considered it. If the Tories are set to bicker amongst themselves more at the same time as Labour realising that it might be a good idea to bicker amongst themselves less, we may end up with a more balanced House of Commons.

I feel completely ridiculous even suggesting it. But… maybe?

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