Who: 

Jeremy Corbyn. Please don’t make me do this. Just read the other entries.

What:

Winning the General Election and forming the next government of the United Kingdom. This would also put them in charge of Brexit negotiations, on which they’ve adopted a quantum superposition.

Why:

Good question. A sense of obligation, perhaps. Or someone lost a bet. There’s literally no fathomable reason that the Labour Party should want to be held accountable for Brexit. Which is exactly what they will be, if they were to win the election.

How:

Bilbo will entrust the One Ring to Frodo who, under the guidance of Gandalf and with the support of some friends, will overcome the Dark Lord Sauron’s various attempts to prevent him reaching Mount Doom.

Okay. Fine.

Labour will be looking to solicit centrist Tory voters who are strongly against Hard Brexit. They will also hope to pick up the left of the Lib Dem vote, where people may still be a bit raw over Nick Clegg sailing them right up George Osborne’s bumhole. This could potentially swing a few marginal seats.

The rest of their plan will be focused on winning back – and defending – traditional Labour seats. And this is where it gets more complicated than the lazy Labour-bashing that I’ve indulged in thus far. It’s where I think the talk of Tory super-majorities is fanciful, even without factoring in a moderate resurgence for the Liberal Democrats.

Because Labour is bigger than Corbyn. Yes, it’s a testament to his ultra-marmiteyness that his leadership has had as much of an impact as it has. And yes, he made a right mess of making a case for the Remain campaign. But at the same time, for many voters, Labour is more than just a party. They’re a team. An identity. One which it’ll take more than  bad management to separate them from. It’s an identity that frequently includes a burning hatred of the Tories.

So while heartland voters may have shocked pollsters and Fabians by turning out in force for Leave, that isn’t at all the same thing as abandoning Labour. It certainly isn’t the same as crossing the river to join the Tories. The North is nearly as full of Labour-‘Til-I-Die types as it is bingo halls and despair. The Midlands actually productised Labour voters to fill the void left by British Leyland. Admittedly, Scottish Labour have collapsed, but only because the SNP are more Labour-y and not English.

The point is that there’s some wonky thinking going on. There’s this false belief that “votes Labour” means “votes Remain”. That was an assumption prior to the referendum. It turned out to be wrong. Instead of continuing to equivocate “Labour supporter” with “Remain supporter”, we need to realise that. Labour supporters can vote to leave the EU. People who voted to leave the EU can support Labour. And, I suspect, they will.

Of course, none of this will win them the election, since they lost the last one pretty spectacularly and that was before Brexit. And the one before that, which was before the referendum was even a twinkle in David Cameron’s eye. But the vote over Europe was not along party lines and a lot of commentators seem to be taking it for granted that it was.

Meanwhile, back on Earth:

No Tory voter is going to switch to a Labour party led by Corbyn and backed by Momentum. Not many Liberal Democrat voters are still so cross that Farron won’t be able to woo them back. If the SNP lose many seats to Labour then I’ll eat not just my hat, but your hat too.

But just because traditional Labour areas voted for Brexit doesn’t mean they’re team-hopping as well. The same thing that will cost them the Tory centre will bring a lot of core voters back into the fold. The party may have misjudged its base, but it is still predominantly its base. It may be blind loyalty that saves them from ruin. But of all the scenarios I’ve run through in my head, none of them have the kind of Labour-Tory swing required for the doomsday theories being bandied around.

Who:

Tim Farron. A radical combination of being very centrist and not being Nick Clegg.

What:

Winning back some seats after suffering a slightly unfair but also entirely foreseeable implosion at the last election.

Why:

May taking the Conservatives a little further to the right and Corbyn’s refreshingly original interpretation of reality have left a centrist vaccum. The Lib Dems – solely through luck rather than judgement – find themselves perfectly positioned to exploit this niche. If they play it right, they could make some very significant gains.

How:

There are three main prongs to the Lib Dem approach.

Firstly, they’re hoping to win back their previous vote. This will likely mean keeping both Nick Clegg and Vince Cable in a box somewhere remote, so they don’t accidentally get any air time and bugger it all up again. Failure to pick up at least a half dozen of these seats should be seen as a disastrous result for the party.

Secondly, they want to pick up traditional Labour voters who don’t want to further feed the PLP leadership’s folie au deux. This includes Remain voters, people who voted for Blair in ’97 only to be bitterly disappointed, and everyone south of Dudley. The problem here is that they may suffer the UKIP Effect: picking up millions more votes, but spread so thinly that it doesn’t translate into parliamentary gains. Because our political system is muchos dumb, por favor.

Finally, they want to pick up Remain-voting Tories, now that party has abandoned the political centre for the far-Burn-It-All-Down-And-Eat-The-Poor-right. There are a lot of people with a Brexit bone to pick and nobody to pick it for them. The Tories certainly won’t and Labour dropped the ball so hard on it that most people – myself included – can only conclude they did so intentionally. This makes the Lib Dems a strong choice for hot-topic voters.

Outside of this, they’ll be picking at moderate voters who are concerned about education and healthcare.

Predictions:

Probably quite a strong performance and potentially the only obstacle between the Prime Minister and a 100+ seat working majority. However, not as strong as it could be, as they’ll suffer in the face of obstinately party-loyal Labour voters and the likelihood of disaffected centrist Tories opting to abstain rather than switch.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised by them winning 30+ seats. If I’m wrong about the Labour voters and/or Remain voters from both the main parties do actually switch allegiance, a phenomenal showing would put them at 60-70. I don’ think this likely, but it’ll be what the party moonshot goal is.

Who:

Nicola Sturgeon, currently the UK’s only credible opposition leader.

What:

They’ll be looking to keep all of the seats they won in the last election.

Why:

Firstly, that’s what parties do and the SNP don’t want to be seen as a one-hit wonder. Now Baron Greenback has finally buggered off and handed the party into competent hands, they’ve got the opportunity to prove it.

Secondly, Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU. They also voted not-so-overwhelmingly to remain a part of the UK. The SNP could use another landslide Scottish victory to push harder for a second independence referendum, this time with a fair shot at it being successful.

How:

By not being the Tories and riding high on a tide of Scottish nationalism, Brexit anger and Bucky.

Predictions:

They’ll keep most if not all of their seats and we can then look forward to another 5 years of constant bitching while the Conservatives block a second independence vote.

Bonus points for everyone if they agree to work as part of an anti-Tory coalition to fight Hard Brexit, in exchange for support for a second independence vote at the earliest opportunity.

Who:

The current government, led by Theresa May. If you’re unfamiliar with her, she’s the one who is probably Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars, but with a less approachable haircut and worse friends.

What:

An attempt to guarantee themselves another 5 years in power, with a likely minimum of another 15 years beyond that. In doing so, the party will lurch further towards the right, undoing the last 20 years of slow progress towards vaguely sane centrist policies.

Why:

Because they can. But also a whole host of complex and interdependent reasons. Aside from the depressingly Machiavellian motivation outlined here, Theresa May has a couple of problems she really wants to address.

Probably foremost among them is the fact she has a slender working majority of 17 seats and quite a lot of back-benchers who don’t like what she’s doing. The sane edge of the party doesn’t like the rhetoric surrounding the so-called Hard Brexit and are likely to vote against her at inconvenient times. They may create similar hurdles when it comes to grammar schools or any authoritarian bent on social policies.

She is also currently governing under the shadow of not having won an election. Initially this was beneficial, as it meant she’d promised nothing and was primarily tasked with enacting the Will Of The People. Now she has the opportunity to push her own policies, things need to change. What she needs is a mandate. It doesn’t have to be ‘for’ anything – in fact, the vaguer the better. But she definitely wants one.

By pushing for an election at a time when the opposition is trailing by ~20 points in the polls, the Prime Minister hopes to increase her majority. In doing so, the feelings of 20 or 30 still morally-functional human beings become less relevant. Some polls suggest she could even get a monster 3-digit working majority. She can then do pretty much whatever she wants with impunity; she’ll have the numbers one way or another. Defaulting onto World Trade Organisation tariffs which we’ll have to apply for before we even qualify for them? No problem. Mandatory mulching of the poor as soon as they say the words “healthcare” or “social equality”? Jeeves, bring me my Pov-Press 9000!

There is some truth to the idea of having a mandate for Brexit, but in reality it is her wider policy platform she wants the sign-off for. Nobody really thinks Brexit won’t happen now. It will. Nobody in a position to is seriously challenging any part of it, except within the Tory party, from those who don’t want us to crash and burn with no deal.

Something else to consider is that we may end up seeing Scotland have another referendum and leave the UK. I can’t blame them for this, but what it’ll do is massively increase the Conservative parliamentary majority in real terms across the rest of the UK. Scotland has long been a thorn in the side of the Tories, as they never win any seats there. By removing it from the equation completely, they effectively gerrymander the entire of the rest of the union – such as it is by that point – in their favour.

Maybe my suggestion of an unrestrained Tory government for a generation sounds fanciful. But give them a 3-figure majority and remove Scotland from the equation. Now imagine Labour or the Lib Dems closing that gap in less than 4 election cycles. Can’t? Neither can I.

Of course, there’s a bunch of other reasons for holding the election now, which I’ll try and cover in another post. But the above are the main ones and, to answer your next question; no, it isn’t too early to start drinking.

How:

It’s pretty much in the bag and is theirs to lose. Aided by Jeremy Corbyn, who will spend the whole election campaign protesting against the Poll Tax and talking about how he’s actually really popular despite all evidence to the contrary.

Predictions:

They will win and you will sell your children into slavery because it will drastically improve their quality of life.

Blind party loyalty will mean the Tories under-perform in many of their target Labour seats. They will also lose some seats back to the Lib Dems. This combination will prevent the 100+ working majority, leaving the Prime Minister with something nearer 70 seats with which to ruin the country.

The past 12 months haven’t been the most heartwarming, in terms of democratic process. The Brexit referendum was a muddle of ideological lies, jingoistic lies, and racist lies. Donald Trump is the embodiment of corporatism, literally profitising American politics for his own gain. Turkey has voted for Christmas by giving Erdogan another decade or so to cement his totalitarian Grand Viziership.

We’re about to add another item to that list: the total domination of British politics by the far right of the Conservative party.

There’s a number of reasons for the Prime Minister to call a General Election right now. I’ve covered some of them here and many more will be examined in detail by the media over the next 6 weeks. But don’t be fooled; there’s one truly fundamental motivation – the Tories see the chance to secure power for decades to come.

The political centre has already undergone a significant shift to the right. With Labour’s centrist elements left buggered beyond all rescue, there was no opposition to prevent it. The Lib Dems’ rapid inflation and collapse put them out of the picture while the move was made. Exiting the European Union has provided the greatest scapegoat in British political history. Conditions are perfect for a right-wing coup.

At least under Osborne’s austerity, cuts could only be excused while the economy tanked. With the new order, cuts and cuts and cuts will all be enforced with extra cuts on the side, the blame pinned firmly on the challenges of Brexit. It’ll be the divorce bill. Or the horrible trade deal we’ll get if we try to not pay the divorce bill. Or whichever of the brewing wars we get over-invested in as part of the new Cold War, now we’ve shot the European Union in the foot and emboldened Russia.

The point is that this is all going to be awful. With no credible opposition, the Conservatives can secure themselves an overwhelming parliamentary majority. Instead of 17 seats and a fractious back-bench, they’ll have carte blanche to advance whatever agenda they claim the election mandated.

It isn’t about negotiating positions with Europe, as the government has seen precious little in the way of opposition to their approach to that. It isn’t about strong leadership, as that doesn’t require a snap election. It certainly isn’t about representing the interests of non-majority views. You don’t try and build an unassailable political fortress if you have any intention of working across party lines.

No. What it’s about is selling off the NHS and forcing through grammar schools. It’s about bullying local government with the threat – and reality – of yet more cuts. It’s about pushing regressive taxation and banging the last few nails into the coffin of political accountability.

Calling a General Election now has all sorts of interesting implications. Whatever those may be, the primary reason for and the near-certain outcome of it is the same: a far-right wet dream of privatisation and trickle-down economics. For the next 20 years. It’s a completion of the Thatcherite project of Americanising the UK’s political and economic climate, in line with private interests.

So, while reading all the nuanced and insightful coverage, just remember all this. I fully intend to let myself lapse into politics junkie heaven and get involved in the details and developments. But I’ll be enjoying the ride in the despondent knowledge that the destination is going to be really very extremely not good.

Sitrep: Why is this happening and when can I get off this planet?

Conservatives   Labour   Liberal Democrats   SNP

Great news! After an exhausting 9 months of pretending to have some shred of integrity, Theresa May has called a general election. Is this because the past 12 months have been such a rip-roaring success when it comes to people voting for things? Perhaps. But maybe I’m being unfair to her. The real reason could be that she’s finally overcome her fear of being seen to be brazenly exploiting our political system in exchange for massive personal gain. We’ll probably never know, despite it quite obviously being exactly that.

Depressingly, what she has done makes perfect sense. From a problem-solving perspective, it’s a wholly rational thing to do. She stands to gain an awful lot and risks very little in attempting to do so. In terms of political manoeuvring, it’s just about the best thing she could do and the best time to do it. In terms of news for the future of this country, it’s just behind the 4-minute warning.

As a quick and painfully subjective primer, I’ve put together a few posts covering who will be hoping for what, how they’ll be planning to get it, and whether they have a hope in hell of doing so. I’ll update the links at the top of this page as I add more posts. Please excuse the unlinked headers at the top in the meantime.