So, what is this fair plan? Well, it’s fairly plan-y: a list of perfectly reasonable, inoffensive ideas outlining their plan, all of which are worded in such a way as to feature the word ‘fair’. The kind of stuff that, were most people aware it existed, would prompt comments like “that seems sensible.” But most people won’t see it, because the last time the Lib Dems dabbled in fanfare, Jo Swinson had to order herself out into the carpark and have herself shot.

What I’m getting at is, in terms of electoral strategy and policy platform, they’re playing it safe. So safe that the only really remarkable thing about it is how unremarkable the whole thing is.

To be clear, I don’t mean to suggest that’s the wrong thing to do; I think it’s exactly what they should be doing. It seems they’re aware that they really need to learn to walk before they can run, this time round. Ed Davy looks to be focused on guiding them to a long-term recovery, rather than some phoenix from the ashes fantasy. Sure, they’re still littering my hallway with “Only the Lib Dems can win here!” gibberish, but it seems like they’ve learned from past mistakes. They understand they’re not quite back in from the cold yet, and remember what happened the last time they pretended they could really honestly for reals form a government.

Why It Matters

Nobody is expecting miracles from the Lib Dems, this year. The election is really a straight dust-up between the Labour and Conservative parties, with the former widely predicted to utterly batter the latter. What’s going to shape that, though, is what happens with Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats, both nationally (Reform) and in key seats (Lib Dems).

First off, I expect we’re going to see a higher than average amount of tactical voting this year. That’s maaaybe part of a wider multi-cycle trend, but mostly down to the fact this election is really about how much everyone is currently sick to death of the Tories. Negative voting will decide this election and there’s only one party that’ll form the hand from which that democratic middle finger is extended: Labour. I don’t say that out of partisanship; I’m no flag-flying Labour supporter; it’s just something the data very clearly shows could happen.

What the Lib Dems bring to the table is helping shape the severity of the battering that’s handed out.

They might pick up a point or two of stray Tory vote, probably from the types of people who tend to vote no matter what, have an entrenched antipathy towards anyone with a red rosette, but have found the centre of the Tory party is now somewhere in a yurt with Genghis Khan. This makes the races in a handful of marginal seats even tighter. Combined with Reform doing the same from the (far) right, this could help Labour take an even bigger majority of seats across the country.

Second and probably more importantly, the Lib Dems have demonstrated a knack for running successful campaigns in target constituencies. It’s a skill that’s almost the exact inverse of their inability to mount a coherent national campaign. As such, I’d be very surprised if they don’t pick up a modest handful of new seats because, unlike Reform, their vote share is typically quite concentrated.

This is something of which they’ll be especially mindful this year, as there is a – pretty remote – possibility that the Tories get take such a glorious drubbing that they don’t even carry enough seats to form the opposition. To be clear: this is very unlikely, but notable because it’s the first time it has been even that.

That sounds mad, even to me, an ex-member of the party. You’d be forgiven for thinking I’m just spouting fantastical Swinsonite nonsense. But a quick look at the seat prediction spread on the excellent Electoral Calculus shows I’ve not gone completely doolally just yet. It’s an outlier, granted, but not such a distant one as can be safely ignored.

I’m not sure I can imagine what a parliament with the Liberal Democrats as official opposition to a huge Labour majority looks like, but I’m sure a lot of people at Lib Dem HQ are doing just that. What I can tell you, though, is it would be very, very funny. I’m in a Lib Dem marginal, since the boundary changes, so it looks like that’s where my vote is going.