2017 General Election Extravaganza: Labour

Who: 

Jeremy Corbyn. Please don’t make me do this. Just read the other entries.

What:

Winning the General Election and forming the next government of the United Kingdom. This would also put them in charge of Brexit negotiations, on which they’ve adopted a quantum superposition.

Why:

Good question. A sense of obligation, perhaps. Or someone lost a bet. There’s literally no fathomable reason that the Labour Party should want to be held accountable for Brexit. Which is exactly what they will be, if they were to win the election.

How:

Bilbo will entrust the One Ring to Frodo who, under the guidance of Gandalf and with the support of some friends, will overcome the Dark Lord Sauron’s various attempts to prevent him reaching Mount Doom.

Okay. Fine.

Labour will be looking to solicit centrist Tory voters who are strongly against Hard Brexit. They will also hope to pick up the left of the Lib Dem vote, where people may still be a bit raw over Nick Clegg sailing them right up George Osborne’s bumhole. This could potentially swing a few marginal seats.

The rest of their plan will be focused on winning back – and defending – traditional Labour seats. And this is where it gets more complicated than the lazy Labour-bashing that I’ve indulged in thus far. It’s where I think the talk of Tory super-majorities is fanciful, even without factoring in a moderate resurgence for the Liberal Democrats.

Because Labour is bigger than Corbyn. Yes, it’s a testament to his ultra-marmiteyness that his leadership has had as much of an impact as it has. And yes, he made a right mess of making a case for the Remain campaign. But at the same time, for many voters, Labour is more than just a party. They’re a team. An identity. One which it’ll take more than  bad management to separate them from. It’s an identity that frequently includes a burning hatred of the Tories.

So while heartland voters may have shocked pollsters and Fabians by turning out in force for Leave, that isn’t at all the same thing as abandoning Labour. It certainly isn’t the same as crossing the river to join the Tories. The North is nearly as full of Labour-‘Til-I-Die types as it is bingo halls and despair. The Midlands actually productised Labour voters to fill the void left by British Leyland. Admittedly, Scottish Labour have collapsed, but only because the SNP are more Labour-y and not English.

The point is that there’s some wonky thinking going on. There’s this false belief that “votes Labour” means “votes Remain”. That was an assumption prior to the referendum. It turned out to be wrong. Instead of continuing to equivocate “Labour supporter” with “Remain supporter”, we need to realise that. Labour supporters can vote to leave the EU. People who voted to leave the EU can support Labour. And, I suspect, they will.

Of course, none of this will win them the election, since they lost the last one pretty spectacularly and that was before Brexit. And the one before that, which was before the referendum was even a twinkle in David Cameron’s eye. But the vote over Europe was not along party lines and a lot of commentators seem to be taking it for granted that it was.

Meanwhile, back on Earth:

No Tory voter is going to switch to a Labour party led by Corbyn and backed by Momentum. Not many Liberal Democrat voters are still so cross that Farron won’t be able to woo them back. If the SNP lose many seats to Labour then I’ll eat not just my hat, but your hat too.

But just because traditional Labour areas voted for Brexit doesn’t mean they’re team-hopping as well. The same thing that will cost them the Tory centre will bring a lot of core voters back into the fold. The party may have misjudged its base, but it is still predominantly its base. It may be blind loyalty that saves them from ruin. But of all the scenarios I’ve run through in my head, none of them have the kind of Labour-Tory swing required for the doomsday theories being bandied around.

2017 General Election Extravaganza: The Liberal Democrats

Who:

Tim Farron. A radical combination of being very centrist and not being Nick Clegg.

What:

Winning back some seats after suffering a slightly unfair but also entirely foreseeable implosion at the last election.

Why:

May taking the Conservatives a little further to the right and Corbyn’s refreshingly original interpretation of reality have left a centrist vaccum. The Lib Dems – solely through luck rather than judgement – find themselves perfectly positioned to exploit this niche. If they play it right, they could make some very significant gains.

How:

There are three main prongs to the Lib Dem approach.

Firstly, they’re hoping to win back their previous vote. This will likely mean keeping both Nick Clegg and Vince Cable in a box somewhere remote, so they don’t accidentally get any air time and bugger it all up again. Failure to pick up at least a half dozen of these seats should be seen as a disastrous result for the party.

Secondly, they want to pick up traditional Labour voters who don’t want to further feed the PLP leadership’s folie au deux. This includes Remain voters, people who voted for Blair in ’97 only to be bitterly disappointed, and everyone south of Dudley. The problem here is that they may suffer the UKIP Effect: picking up millions more votes, but spread so thinly that it doesn’t translate into parliamentary gains. Because our political system is muchos dumb, por favor.

Finally, they want to pick up Remain-voting Tories, now that party has abandoned the political centre for the far-Burn-It-All-Down-And-Eat-The-Poor-right. There are a lot of people with a Brexit bone to pick and nobody to pick it for them. The Tories certainly won’t and Labour dropped the ball so hard on it that most people – myself included – can only conclude they did so intentionally. This makes the Lib Dems a strong choice for hot-topic voters.

Outside of this, they’ll be picking at moderate voters who are concerned about education and healthcare.

Predictions:

Probably quite a strong performance and potentially the only obstacle between the Prime Minister and a 100+ seat working majority. However, not as strong as it could be, as they’ll suffer in the face of obstinately party-loyal Labour voters and the likelihood of disaffected centrist Tories opting to abstain rather than switch.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised by them winning 30+ seats. If I’m wrong about the Labour voters and/or Remain voters from both the main parties do actually switch allegiance, a phenomenal showing would put them at 60-70. I don’ think this likely, but it’ll be what the party moonshot goal is.

2017 General Election Extravaganza: The Scottish National Party

Who:

Nicola Sturgeon, currently the UK’s only credible opposition leader.

What:

They’ll be looking to keep all of the seats they won in the last election.

Why:

Firstly, that’s what parties do and the SNP don’t want to be seen as a one-hit wonder. Now Baron Greenback has finally buggered off and handed the party into competent hands, they’ve got the opportunity to prove it.

Secondly, Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU. They also voted not-so-overwhelmingly to remain a part of the UK. The SNP could use another landslide Scottish victory to push harder for a second independence referendum, this time with a fair shot at it being successful.

How:

By not being the Tories and riding high on a tide of Scottish nationalism, Brexit anger and Bucky.

Predictions:

They’ll keep most if not all of their seats and we can then look forward to another 5 years of constant bitching while the Conservatives block a second independence vote.

Bonus points for everyone if they agree to work as part of an anti-Tory coalition to fight Hard Brexit, in exchange for support for a second independence vote at the earliest opportunity.

2017 General Election Extravaganza: The Conservatives

Who:

The current government, led by Theresa May. If you’re unfamiliar with her, she’s the one who is probably Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars, but with a less approachable haircut and worse friends.

What:

An attempt to guarantee themselves another 5 years in power, with a likely minimum of another 15 years beyond that. In doing so, the party will lurch further towards the right, undoing the last 20 years of slow progress towards vaguely sane centrist policies.

Why:

Because they can. But also a whole host of complex and interdependent reasons. Aside from the depressingly Machiavellian motivation outlined here, Theresa May has a couple of problems she really wants to address.

Probably foremost among them is the fact she has a slender working majority of 17 seats and quite a lot of back-benchers who don’t like what she’s doing. The sane edge of the party doesn’t like the rhetoric surrounding the so-called Hard Brexit and are likely to vote against her at inconvenient times. They may create similar hurdles when it comes to grammar schools or any authoritarian bent on social policies.

She is also currently governing under the shadow of not having won an election. Initially this was beneficial, as it meant she’d promised nothing and was primarily tasked with enacting the Will Of The People. Now she has the opportunity to push her own policies, things need to change. What she needs is a mandate. It doesn’t have to be ‘for’ anything – in fact, the vaguer the better. But she definitely wants one.

By pushing for an election at a time when the opposition is trailing by ~20 points in the polls, the Prime Minister hopes to increase her majority. In doing so, the feelings of 20 or 30 still morally-functional human beings become less relevant. Some polls suggest she could even get a monster 3-digit working majority. She can then do pretty much whatever she wants with impunity; she’ll have the numbers one way or another. Defaulting onto World Trade Organisation tariffs which we’ll have to apply for before we even qualify for them? No problem. Mandatory mulching of the poor as soon as they say the words “healthcare” or “social equality”? Jeeves, bring me my Pov-Press 9000!

There is some truth to the idea of having a mandate for Brexit, but in reality it is her wider policy platform she wants the sign-off for. Nobody really thinks Brexit won’t happen now. It will. Nobody in a position to is seriously challenging any part of it, except within the Tory party, from those who don’t want us to crash and burn with no deal.

Something else to consider is that we may end up seeing Scotland have another referendum and leave the UK. I can’t blame them for this, but what it’ll do is massively increase the Conservative parliamentary majority in real terms across the rest of the UK. Scotland has long been a thorn in the side of the Tories, as they never win any seats there. By removing it from the equation completely, they effectively gerrymander the entire of the rest of the union – such as it is by that point – in their favour.

Maybe my suggestion of an unrestrained Tory government for a generation sounds fanciful. But give them a 3-figure majority and remove Scotland from the equation. Now imagine Labour or the Lib Dems closing that gap in less than 4 election cycles. Can’t? Neither can I.

Of course, there’s a bunch of other reasons for holding the election now, which I’ll try and cover in another post. But the above are the main ones and, to answer your next question; no, it isn’t too early to start drinking.

How:

It’s pretty much in the bag and is theirs to lose. Aided by Jeremy Corbyn, who will spend the whole election campaign protesting against the Poll Tax and talking about how he’s actually really popular despite all evidence to the contrary.

Predictions:

They will win and you will sell your children into slavery because it will drastically improve their quality of life.

Blind party loyalty will mean the Tories under-perform in many of their target Labour seats. They will also lose some seats back to the Lib Dems. This combination will prevent the 100+ working majority, leaving the Prime Minister with something nearer 70 seats with which to ruin the country.

Getting Down to Brass Tacks Cuts: The Big Picture

The past 12 months haven’t been the most heartwarming, in terms of democratic process. The Brexit referendum was a muddle of ideological lies, jingoistic lies, and racist lies. Donald Trump is the embodiment of corporatism, literally profitising American politics for his own gain. Turkey has voted for Christmas by giving Erdogan another decade or so to cement his totalitarian Grand Viziership.

We’re about to add another item to that list: the total domination of British politics by the far right of the Conservative party.

There’s a number of reasons for the Prime Minister to call a General Election right now. I’ve covered some of them here and many more will be examined in detail by the media over the next 6 weeks. But don’t be fooled; there’s one truly fundamental motivation – the Tories see the chance to secure power for decades to come.

The political centre has already undergone a significant shift to the right. With Labour’s centrist elements left buggered beyond all rescue, there was no opposition to prevent it. The Lib Dems’ rapid inflation and collapse put them out of the picture while the move was made. Exiting the European Union has provided the greatest scapegoat in British political history. Conditions are perfect for a right-wing coup.

At least under Osborne’s austerity, cuts could only be excused while the economy tanked. With the new order, cuts and cuts and cuts will all be enforced with extra cuts on the side, the blame pinned firmly on the challenges of Brexit. It’ll be the divorce bill. Or the horrible trade deal we’ll get if we try to not pay the divorce bill. Or whichever of the brewing wars we get over-invested in as part of the new Cold War, now we’ve shot the European Union in the foot and emboldened Russia.

The point is that this is all going to be awful. With no credible opposition, the Conservatives can secure themselves an overwhelming parliamentary majority. Instead of 17 seats and a fractious back-bench, they’ll have carte blanche to advance whatever agenda they claim the election mandated.

It isn’t about negotiating positions with Europe, as the government has seen precious little in the way of opposition to their approach to that. It isn’t about strong leadership, as that doesn’t require a snap election. It certainly isn’t about representing the interests of non-majority views. You don’t try and build an unassailable political fortress if you have any intention of working across party lines.

No. What it’s about is selling off the NHS and forcing through grammar schools. It’s about bullying local government with the threat – and reality – of yet more cuts. It’s about pushing regressive taxation and banging the last few nails into the coffin of political accountability.

Calling a General Election now has all sorts of interesting implications. Whatever those may be, the primary reason for and the near-certain outcome of it is the same: a far-right wet dream of privatisation and trickle-down economics. For the next 20 years. It’s a completion of the Thatcherite project of Americanising the UK’s political and economic climate, in line with private interests.

So, while reading all the nuanced and insightful coverage, just remember all this. I fully intend to let myself lapse into politics junkie heaven and get involved in the details and developments. But I’ll be enjoying the ride in the despondent knowledge that the destination is going to be really very extremely not good.

It’s Non-Specific Election Time Again

Sitrep: Why is this happening and when can I get off this planet?

Conservatives   Labour   Liberal Democrats   SNP

Great news! After an exhausting 9 months of pretending to have some shred of integrity, Theresa May has called a general election. Is this because the past 12 months have been such a rip-roaring success when it comes to people voting for things? Perhaps. But maybe I’m being unfair to her. The real reason could be that she’s finally overcome her fear of being seen to be brazenly exploiting our political system in exchange for massive personal gain. We’ll probably never know, despite it quite obviously being exactly that.

Depressingly, what she has done makes perfect sense. From a problem-solving perspective, it’s a wholly rational thing to do. She stands to gain an awful lot and risks very little in attempting to do so. In terms of political manoeuvring, it’s just about the best thing she could do and the best time to do it. In terms of news for the future of this country, it’s just behind the 4-minute warning.

As a quick and painfully subjective primer, I’ve put together a few posts covering who will be hoping for what, how they’ll be planning to get it, and whether they have a hope in hell of doing so. I’ll update the links at the top of this page as I add more posts. Please excuse the unlinked headers at the top in the meantime.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Beyond Our Ken

And while we’re on the topic of the opposition, the situation is no rosier with them. I’m hesitant to say it’s actively worse, but only because I find that hard to imagine. However…

Ken Livingstone. Some people love him. Other people don’t love him. His time as mayor of London was mostly carried by blatant “London First” pandering and maintaining a Galloway-lite “quirky outsider” chic. And like Gormless George, he has a penchant for befriending dictators and regularly engaging in Antisemantism.*

So here’s a lesson in politics: act like someone’s weird but charismatic uncle and no-one will raise questions about you being mates with Hugo Chavez.

But without the sheen of populist support, Livingstone doesn’t fare so well. He’s certainly less odious than Galloway, but then so is everyone. That doesn’t excuse his schmoozing with dictators. The offhand racism and infantile word games that follow are fuelled by the same underlying need: narcissistic supply. He wants to be a champion of the left. The left wants a champion. So whatever offensive nonsense parped out of his face, a blind eye was turned.

But that’s just Ken. Nothing I say will change the mind of his fan-base, nor harden the resolve of his critics. The point is, he’s now quite clearly a political liability, stuck in a different era, unable to connect what he says to the world around him. Sound familiar? So the sensible thing would be to jettison him into the credibility-vacuum of space.

Yet this is a man that the Labour Party refuses to expel. He’s a holy relic, one of the few to have been genuinely popular and held significant elected office. They’ll censure him for his stupid attention-seeking soundbites, but they won’t get rid of him. It’d be like the Vatican getting rid of the Turin Shroud. Anyone with more than half a brain knows it’s an obvious fraud, but the church can’t let it go. It’s the best substitute they have for real evidence. It helps sustain the pretence their beliefs haven’t been trodden into the ground by the march of history.

So if willy-waving the Royal Navy at Spaniards tells you all you need to know about the Tories, Ken’s stay of execution should do the same for Labour. Corbyn harks back to when the left had something definite to rally behind. Something easy to articulate. Livingstone is a reminder that votes are there to be won if it can then be so articulated.

I can only assume that the natural progression of this is He Who Must Not Be Named shall be brought back in from the cold. This would be tantamount to the Labour party not only digging its own grave, but then dancing on it. What they really need to do is strip themselves of this nostalgic baggage.

Unless they stop living victories past, stop fighting battles long won – or lost – and start dealing with how the world is now, they will become increasingly irrelevant. Allowing that to happen will cement the shift of the political centre. That’s currently somewhere in the middle-right of the Tory frontbench and drifting further rightward.

So time to grow a spine, disown the likes of Red Ken, and redefine left-wing politics in a way that’s both morally coherent and relevant to the modern world. Over to you, Tom Watson.

*noun. – being openly antisemitic but then playing silly semantic games when people call you out for being a horrible bigot

We’ll Be Driving Over / The White Cliffs of Dover

I’m apparently now one of those screaming lefties who just can’t be happy for the owners of the Brexit bus. The rowdy victory chants and excitable voices of the elderly/credulous/racist have been building to a crescendo for a few months now. With the cliff in sight and the Prime Minister’s foot pressing pedal firmly to the metal, the extremist ideologues can no longer contain themselves.

So the hooting loons are now sounding off, gloating about how we can walk away without paying a penny, patriotic fingers up to Brussels. In a classic bit of incremental up-selling, we’ve gone from being ‘sensible’ (i.e. not maximally stupid) and preserving the best bits to burning the whole house down with our stuff still in it. Because it’s our house.

We were always assured this had nothing to do with race, just migration. Now they’re admitting we can’t do anything about migration, but there’s been an increase in xenophobic attacks on foreigners. Which to my mind sounds a lot more like “this has nothing to do with migration, we’re just racist”. And it was never going to be at any cost, although lately hardliners have been pushing for WTO defaults as a matter of principle. Which is literally the worst possible outcome and, incidentally, nowhere near as simple as it’s made to sound by its promoters.

But if you want one example to really underline exactly what kind of attitudes are informing the government’s Brexit strategy, look no further than Michael Howard. Always one of the hootiest of loons anyway, the frenzy around our nationalistic self-destruction has been too much for him to bear.

Perhaps life is lived at a higher intensity on his home planet, wherever that may be. Maybe years of onanistic Thatcher-worship have left him with self-inflicted tertiary syphilis, his brain a rotten, disintegrating mess. Who knows? It is not for me to speculate. But whatever the reason, he decided it time to threaten we declare war on Spain if we don’t get everything our way with Gibraltar. They might have voted 96% to stay in the EU, but Mr Howard is damned if we’re not taking them over the cliff with us.

Expect more of this over the course of the year. I’m ever-so-slightly optimistic with what will happen longer term than that. Broadly speaking; we’ll humiliate ourselves on the global stage and then humbly accept a less insane deal than the one UKIP & Co. are howling for. But in the short term, expect the honking to get louder and dumber, as the lunatic fringe whips itself into some sort of orgy of imperialist, flag-based gloating.

Because the reality is, only those mad enough to drive us off the cliff in the first place have any sort of plan for this outcome. Everyone else considered it an option too stupid to choose, so didn’t bother. This means we’ve got two camps guiding this: the mad and the clueless.

Still, at least there’s always the opposition, eh?

 

A Change of Change

It has happened again. As years in politics go, this one is going to take some beating. We now have a man who represents everything I despise leading the most powerful nation on Earth. He was put there by… it’d be all too easy to say morons. And having seen some of his rallies and the kind of people who attended them, that’s in part true. Many of them are so stupid it makes me wince.

But that’s not the whole picture, nor is it a fair one. ‘My’ side has our own idiots, they’re just of a different type. The people who think we should accept Islamic extremism as just another set of views. The ones who’ll compare NATO to ISIS with a straight face. People like Jessica Valenti, who recently wrote an article for The Guardian expressing her surprise that some men aren’t sexual predators. The more-liberal-than-thous, the one-issue movements that have more in common with the crusades than they do with suffrage.

Those views aren’t ‘progressive’, although you can bet your arm the people holding them call themselves ‘progressives’. They’re idiotic. Just as much so as those held by the honking rubes who were Trump’s loudest advocates. Valenti’s faux-feminist antagonism is no different from the squit-so-hard-it-hurts incoherence of Ann Coulter. Both undermine equality and tolerance, harming their own purported movements, just from very different positions.

So while we can’t and shouldn’t ignore these groups, we can for the moment discount them. They’ve always been there. They’ll likely always be there. But they don’t win elections on their own. So how the hell do I explain – to myself, let alone anyone else – how we’re where we are now?

The demographics of ‘The West’ are very far from what I believed them to be. People like me are clearly in the minority. The liberal secularists, the moderate progressives. My innate perspective bias toward thinking myself typical of the norm was just that; a biased perspective. It is well-intended, motivated by fairness and compassion, but perhaps fundamentally lacking in some way. Of course, I believe it is better thought out, more moral and nuanced than that of the angry tide we’re seeing now. And I think I’m justified in believing that – but then I would, wouldn’t I?

What I’m coming to realise is I’m just another kind of Fabian; I sympathise, but I don’t understand the depth of the anger because, quite simply, I don’t ever bear the brunt of the burden. My view of anti-establishment reform is more that of an academic. My disgust at exploitation and inequality is moral, aesthetic. It is not that of someone who directly suffers those injustices. My anger is more indignance than outrage. It is from a position of relative safety and privilege.

I can afford to see taxes taken from my pay cheque and think it fair enough, because I am still left with enough to live. Not just survive, to scrape by, but to pursue interests and hobbies. How resentful would I be if that were not the case? How angry would I be if I worked all hours doing something I hated, just to earn barely enough to continue doing so? And how would I act if, in such a situation, I realised I had nothing much to lose in tearing everything down in the hope of ending that cycle?

But it’s more complicated than simply different values and opportunities. Many of the people with whom I differ most strongly share my values. I doubt most people vote with a mind of racism or hate to motivate them. I imagine they, just like me, also want to see more fairness, less exploitation, an equality of hope. It isn’t that they wouldn’t do things ‘nicely’ if that was an option. It’s that it isn’t an option for them at all. They don’t have the luxury of patience that is born of moderate comfort.

So yes, we can disregard the opinions of bigots and lunatics, but we must still account for the rest. What I suspect will turn out to be the ‘shy Trump voter’, the people who voted for Brexit because they’re just sick to death of how things are going. They may only have got over the finishing line with the support of the racists and homophobes and morons, which is sad. But then perhaps ‘my’ side of things only ever get over that line with the same sort of assistance, just from our own variety of deplorable.

In all this, what we must not forget is that as it is for the details, so it is for the bigger picture. Western society has rebelled against the injustices of its elites, its 1%. With this fervour on the loose, why should we think the rest of the world will not follow suit? Because, in the eyes of much of the world, we are the privileged elite. Russia cannot be happy with feeling side-lined after the fall of the Soviet Union. China cannot enjoy being lectured on social ethics by people who did the same things to get themselves into the position to lecture in the first place. Africa and South America still bear the wounds of exploitation, both by traditional colonial imperialism and the more modern globalist kind.

So what does all this mean? In some ways, this may offer the best hope for my anti-establishment beliefs seeing some sort of realisation. Do I accept where we are and get behind the general sentiment? Should I hope that, whatever seismic shift and hardships along the way, we will see a restructuring of the world for the better? I don’t know.

And I don’t know because it’s not just about accepting where we are. It’s about how we got here. That’s a more complex question, because it’s about action and reaction. Has there been a spate of populist nationalism, rich with fear and anger and resentment? Yes. But that was grown in the fertile dirt of an unfair system that disenfranchised huge parts of our society. And, if we’re honest, being nice about it got us nowhere. The whole Occupy movement made a peaceful stand and, other than a few headlines, was ignored. It achieved nothing.

Given this, is it a surprise that many of those who’d usually have been there to oppose Brexit, to vote down Trump, decided they were powerless or that doing things nicely wasn’t working? No. Because that’s an entirely rational response to trying those things and achieving nothing. So it would be equally rational to expect others, on the big-picture scale, to take similar steps if they see the chance.

Perhaps we should take some solace in the fact that the vanguard of social change was civilised, morally-minded people. As a society, our first reaction was to seek to open peaceful dialogue and reasoned debate. But that won no battles and now the cavalry have arrived. They’re not as nice. They’re not peaceful. They aren’t interested in doing things the civilised, morally-minded way. They just want much-needed change.

So just as much as we can take that solace, we must also accept with regret that it carried a kind of respect that wasn’t reciprocated by the elites. It has apparently taken a much more primal approach to shake the foundations. But this is trying to address the wrong things. Instead of enforcing a more accountable socio-economic system, it fears the outsider and shuts us in on ourselves. We may win our change, but it risks being a change away from one kind of injustice to another.

It may be that I am one day left with guilty gratitude towards what is happening now. Maybe it will make things more fair, less top-down and divided. But what cost will we pay for reaching a point where this was what it took? Because the truth is, whatever ends we reach, I cannot in my heart accept the means we seem to be using to get there. Nor the fact that was what it took to do so.

I am left thinking of two famous comments. The first is Gandhi’s beautiful moral call to “be the change you wish to see in the world”. It is a wonderful, concise, easily understandable expression of the Golden Rule, to treat others how we wish to be treated ourselves. The second is a variation on this, from Sartre’s brilliant lecture Existentialism is a Humanism, given in the wake of World War 2:

When we say that man chooses himself, we do mean that every one of us must choose himself; but by that we also mean that in choosing for himself he chooses for all men.

The way we choose to act – not just the ends towards which that action is oriented – is a kind of vote. In fact, it is the most important vote of all, the most absolute realisation of democracy we can ever engage in. And right now, I fear we are choosing very poorly indeed.

One-Party Politics: Pick a Side

In news you could be forgiven for missing, David Cameron has resigned as MP and George von Osborne has re-emerged from the family crypt. I was never a huge fan of the former, but I feel that may have been down to the fact his premiership was almost a job-share with the latter. A man I’d describe in my more charitable moments as a malignant cane toad.

Cameron throwing in the towel was pretty much a given, for a number of reasons. There’s certainly truth to the one he gave, which is that he didn’t feel he could be just another backbencher anymore. Usually that sort of claim is just transparent hand-wavy fantasy, but I imagine such a large step backwards genuinely would be hard for anyone to cope with. It’d also give the media an absolute field day. Any time he disagreed with the frontbench on anything it’d be blown out of all proportion.

This is, at least in part, because Remain vs. Leave aren’t just views on whether the UK should have stayed in the EU or not. They’ve developed into full-blown political positions, sub-ideological belief systems that have their own dogma. Any nicely simplified playing-out of this new polarity in national politics would be too much for the press to resist. They’d go into meltdown every time there was even a hint of disagreement.

More cynically, he also might be feeling a tad exposed if a local election were called. Witney – like me – is in Oxfordshire, which – like me – voted overwhelmingly to Remain. There could well be some bitterness towards the man who not only called the referendum when there was no need to do so, but then proceeded to bungle it in the most heroic of fashions.

That’s not to say I think Witney is suddenly going to stop voting Conservative, as that seems extremely unlikely. It’s a Tory safe seat by 43% of the vote. Not with 43% of the vote, but by a clear 43% margin. It is staying blue. However, if there were another Tory candidate running then Dave might find himself being punished by the electorate. Since punitive voting was arguably a large part of what led to Brexit in the first place, I can hardly blame him for wanting to avoid going through it again.

But there’s a less realpolitik reason that might be equally – or more – significant. If Cameron were to have to run against another Tory and then lose, it would play into a narrative that would be ideologically intolerable to him. Any likely challenger would probably be of the New Guard, as part of May and the more aggressive right of the party trying to consolidate their position. To lose under such circumstances would give all-too public a manifestation to the battle taking place within the Tory party; Cameron’s Fabian Tories vs. May’s Neo-Thatcherites. So Cameron has robbed those opposed to his side of the chance to win that important – if purely symbolic – battle.

Which brings us back to George. As the other half of what was effectively a binary Prime Ministership, he has remained in play. After a very quiet summer – the only public comment of note being ‘on message’ for Tory progressives – he is now getting into position to oppose the new cabinet. I suspect the plan had been to bed in and wait a while for some hot topic to pop up, then to pounce and try to rally support in order to swing the party back a bit further to the centre. What he may not have planned for was finding himself in a position to do so this soon.

With May taking a larger-than-expected jump rightwards and starting the year with the grammar schools announcement, he had little choice. This may be a considered ploy by the cabinet to try and identify, then deal with, any rebellion sooner rather than later. Or possibly to force its hand before it can get properly organised. Not so much because Osborne himself is seen as a major threat, but because knowing who is likely to work with him is of value. Ahead of the budget review – due in November – it could be that there’s some nervousness about contentious details being leaked by treasury staff sympathetic to their old boss.

If there’s one fight that May really doesn’t want to have to pick with the remains of the previous cabinet, it’ll be on the economy and with George Osborne. I thought he was a terrible chancellor, but because I disagreed with him rather than because I thought him incompetent. He is well-placed to tear apart the budget review, if details are leaked to him in advance and thus giving him time to compile an informed and detailed response. So while he’s probably not seen as a leadership threat – he has all the charisma of septic gout – he could still be very damaging if given the opportunity.

I say ‘probably not’ because there is one route I can think of that would lead to him getting the required support. If Corbyn cements his leadership hold over the Labour Party – which looks likely – then there is going to be an exodus amongst the Blairite vote. Centrist Tories might see making a bid for this base as too good an opportunity to miss. They could even pick up a few migratory MPs along the way, bolstering their cause inside Westminster, as well as out.

Not only would this support give them back effective control of the Commons, but it would potentially do so to such an extent as to re-trivialise the new right. This would be seen as a massive victory, especially at a time when the right-wing of the party is otherwise only going to grow, as UKIP single-issue supporters drift back to their spiritual home. A leadership contest could be forced, a General Election held while Labour are busy eating themselves, and Project Camborne is back in business.

So George Osborne is trying to do what David Miliband attempted with Gordon Brown. Only he’s trying to do it in a more logical place: The Conservative backbenches. Just as D-Mil tried to win back control for the Blairites after Brown tried to make Labour much too Labour-y for their liking, Osborne is doing the same with May’s new era.

As is always the case after any huge disruption to the status quo, things are going to oscillate around for a while trying to find a new normal. Expect to see a tug of war between those who want to see a continuation of the Cameron-Osborne agenda and those who want to return to 1980 Bastard Politics. I’d rather have neither, but given the state of the non-Tory opposition and the continual creep further rightwards of the new establishment, I’ll take the ‘Compassionate’ Conservatism any day.